Dr. Ehrlich's Magic Bullet

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Abstract
During the past decade, there have been renewed calls for the use of capi tal punishment to deter murder. Economists and other social scientists have conducted statistical analyses which have generally failed to locate these alleged deterrent effects. A few economists, notably Isaac Ehrlich, have claimed to locate such effects, but little confidence can be placed in these findings. This article reviews these studies, with particular attention paid to a plain-English review of statistical methods used and technical problems found in the analyses. However, this review of technical questions should not obscure broader issues about socioeconomic influences on homicide, crime, and deterrence. Such issues cannot be resolved through debates over econometric techniques.

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