A Method for Estimating Progression Rates in Alzheimer Disease

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Abstract
NEWLY DIAGNOSED patients with Alzheimer disease (AD) and their families frequently ask: How severe is the disease? How fast will it progress? How much longer do I have before it gets bad? The ability to predict progression rates would aid clinicians, patients, and patients' families in decision making. Models for predicting progression would also help to validate putative biomarkers, which should correlate better with progression rates than with severity if they reflect the active pathogenic process. Finally, better predictive models would affect the design of clinical trials by making it possible in some cases to use changes in individual progression rates to assess the efficacy of disease-modifying therapies.