The Clinical Prediction of Dangerousness

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Abstract
Laws committing dangerous sexual offenders indefinitely are legitimate only insofar as "dangerousness" can be predicted and treated. The court has relied on the clinician to identify and measure the crucial variables in violent behavior and assign a probability of occurrence. Yet most critical studies have concluded that not only has predictive accuracy not been demonstrated but also that such accuracy cannot be achieved. We argue that any conclusion at this time is premature. There are data indicating the soundness of clinical as opposed to statistical prediction of dangerous ness. Both approaches show high false positive error rates, but the im provement in accuracy of clinical studies over statistical studies cannot be denied.

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