The Military Balance in the Taiwan Straits

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Abstract
The 1994 book The Intercalary August 1995, a fictional account of a surgical-strike invasion of Taiwan by China, sold a record 200,000 copies between August and December 1994. The huge sales volume reflected a growing sense of insecurity among Taiwan′s residents, despite a visitor′s observation months earlier that the two sides had “rarely been more peaceful.” In the latter half of 1994, China staged its largest military exercise in years and Taiwan followed suit as if in response. Concurrently, Taiwanese emigration reached a six-year peak, which many perceived to have resulted from residents fleeing in fear. By early 1995, some U.S. officials admitted publicly that one had to take seriously the threat that “the mainland could invade” Taiwan. This statement represents a shifting post-Cold War perception from marginalizing China′s attack on Taiwan almost as a non-issue to reckoning such conflict as a possibility bordering on probability. Beginning in late July 1995, China reinforced this shift by testing missiles and artilleries in waters with unprecedented proximity to Taiwan, imposing in effect a series of temporary blockades on the island.

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