Prediction of Cannabis Use Disorder between Boyhood and Young Adulthood: Clarifying the Phenotype and Environtype

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Abstract
Employing a prospective paradigm, this investigation derived the childhood phenotype and the environtype associated with risk for cannabis use disorder. Two hundred and sixteen boys were evaluated between age 10–12 on a comprehensive protocol using self, mother, and teacher reports and followed‐up at ages 19 and 22 to determine the presence of cannabis use disorder. The Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) and Non‐Transmissible Liability Index (NTLI) were derived using item response theory. Logistic regression was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the indexes, singly and in combination, to predict cannabis use disorder. The TLI and NTLI together predicted with 70% and 75% accuracy cannabis use disorder manifest by age 19 and age 22. Sensitivity was 75% at both ages 19 and 22, whereas specificity was respectively 51% and 64%. The findings pertaining to sensitivity indicate that SUD risk for cannabis use disorder can be screened in childhood; however, the specificity scores demonstrate that a low score on the TLI does not inevitably portend a good prognosis up to 10 years later.