Activity Subdivision and PERT Probability Statements

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Abstract
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) has been developed and implemented as a technique for planning and evaluating the progress of research and development programs. Probability theory is used in PERT to calculate a measure of the uncertainty in meeting scheduled dates. These computed probabilities can then be used by managers to aid their judgment in evaluating the validity of schedules for accomplishing program objectives. This paper investigates the effect of subdividing activities in PERT flow diagrams on computed probabilities for meeting scheduled dates. It is shown that the mechanics of activity subdivision can increase or decrease the computed probabilities, depending upon whether the scheduled date for an event is later or earlier in time than the expected date. Management personnel who are using PERT probabilities to aid their judgment in evaluating schedules should be aware of the potential biases inherent in the computation of probabilities.

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