The structural shape of force: Interstate intervention in the zones of peace and turmoil, 1946–1996

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Abstract
Two structural models are analyzed using data on foreign military interventions over the past half‐century. A vertical model posits constancy in center‐periphery ties, while a horizontal model suggests that the center and the periphery will gradually decouple when it comes to the use of force. The latter, horizontal, view is more commonly accepted. Because of dwindling interest in the periphery with the end of the Cold War and the increased militarization of that part of the world, it is assumed that developed states will become more reluctant to use military force in the hinterlands. Hence, the use of force should primarily consist of horizontal interaction within the periphery rather than vertical interaction between the center and the periphery. Despite such conventional wisdom, the data on interstate military intervention provides considerable support for the vertical model over the past fifty years. My findings also challenge common assumptions about the world dividing into a “zone of peace” among developed states and a “zone of turmoil” encompassing all other actors in the post‐Cold War era.