The rise and fall of species: implications for macroevolutionary and macroecological studies

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Abstract
Knowing the geographic extents of species is crucial for understanding the causes of diversity distributions and modes of speciation and extinction. Species geographic ranges are often viewed as approximately constant in size in geological time, even though climate change studies have shown that historical and modern species geographic distributions are not static. Here, we use an extensive global microfossil database to explore the temporal trajectories of geographic extents over the entire lifespan of marine nannoplankton, diatom, planktic foraminifer and radiolarian species. We show that geographic extents are not static over geological time-scales. Temporal trajectories of species geographic ranges are asymmetric: the rise is quicker than the fall. We propose that once a species has overcome its initial difficulties in geographic establishment, it rises to its peak geographic extent. However, once this peak value is reached, it will also have a maximal number of species to interact with. The negative of these biotic interactions could then cause a gradual geographic decline. We discuss the multiple implications of our findings with reference to macroecological and macroevolutionary studies.