Estimating Housing Mortality

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Abstract
Actuaries have developed many techniques for analyzing human mortality. A similar technique for estimating the survival, loss, and expected useful life of housing inventories would be valuable to planners. This paper presents preliminary research findings based on an adaptation of Gompertz's human mortality curve to housing. Although the data currently available to estimate parameters of the model are scarce, they will become more extensive and rich as the U.S. Annual Housing Surveys accumulate. Exploratory tests of the fit of the model to actual housing loss data are encouraging. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential uses of housing mortality data and statistics, highlighting promising next steps.

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