Variability of Human Thyroid Characteristics and Estimates of Dose from Ingested 131I

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Abstract
An important step in the assessment of dose to man from environmental releases of radionuclides is the estimation of dose per unit intake. Large uncertainties may be associated with estimates of dose due to variability in human physiological and metabolic characteristics. An evaluation of variability in three principal biological parameters (thyroid mass, uptake and retention of ingested iodine in the thyroid gland) used in calculation of dose to the human thyroid gland from ingested 131I has been performed for several age categories. The resulting imprecision in predicted thyroid dose commitment per unit intake for each age group is estimated using Monte-Carlo sampling procedures. The ratio of the 99th percentile estimate of dose to the mean estimate is approx. 3 for each of the age groups. The importance of this uncertainty in dose estimates is discussed, including potential implications for radiation protection.

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