The Determinants of Strike Incidence and Severity: A Micro-Level Study

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Abstract
This paper investigates the determinants of “strike incidence and severity during labor contract negotiations. The author develops a model that considers the forces influencing both unions' willingness to strike and employers' willingness to take a strike, and estimates it using data describing 1,050 negotiations in U.S. manufacturing during the 1971–80 period. The results indicate that strike incidence is influenced by the gender composition of the labor force, demand fluctuations in the product market, location in a right-to-work state, the number of workers in the bargaining unit, union density in the industry, and the extent to which wages kept pace with inflation over the prior contract period. On the other hand, neither the local unemployment rate when negotiations began nor the inflation rate over the term of the expiring contract influenced strike incidence or severity in this sample.