Age composition and alternative explanations of crime: Directions for theory and research

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Abstract
Theory and research relating age composition of the population to crime rates is reviewed in terms of (a) existing empirical evidence, (b) the non‐linearity of crime‐rate changes during the past sixteen years, (c) crime‐rate changes as they relate to the age and race composition of U.S. central cities with populations over 250,000 and (d) the relationship of selective‐incapacitation policy to crime‐rate changes. Though there is an empirical basis for the age‐composition thesis, and selective incapacitation policy offers no particular challenge nor assistance to the thesis, crime‐rate trends and city‐level data do raise problems. The paper concludes with an examination of basic theoretical and conceptual issues which must be addressed before age‐composition explanations of crime‐rate changes can be accepted with confidence.

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