The Use of Expert Judgments in Predicting Interregional Migration Patterns: An Analytic Hierarchy Approach

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Abstract
This paper presents an application of Saaty's analytic hierarchy process to the prediction of interregional migration patterns. This application is an example of how Saaty's method can be used in analyzing geographic problems to synthesize the results of theoretical models with the judgments of experts and policymakers. After discussing the basic theory behind Saaty's method and how expert judgments can be inserted into the Tobler‐Dorigo migration model, the results of an application of this model to predict migrations between the nine U.S. census regions for the 1965–70 period are used to illustrate the basic steps in this approach.

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