Modeling and Forecasting Populations by Time Series: The Swedish Case

1 August 1974

journal article
Published by Duke University Press in Demography

Vol. 11 (3) , 483-492
https://doi.org/10.2307/2060440

Abstract

Time series analysis techniques are used to model and to forecast populations. An autoregressive (AR) and a moving average (MA) model, which seem to fit the population of Sweden very well, are found. Forecasts are calculated using both models and are compared with the forecasts obtained by other methods. This comparison is very favorable for the time series models. Although our study is confined to the mid-year population of Sweden, there are good reasons to expect that the technique can be successfully applied to other population parameters.

Keywords

This publication has 3 references indexed in Scilit:

On Future Population
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1972
The demographic history of the northern european countries in the eighteenth century
Population Studies, 1949
On the Rate of Growth of the Population of the United States since 1790 and Its Mathematical Representation
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1920