Sample size, confidence, and contingency judgement.
- 1 June 2002
- journal article
- clinical trial
- Published by American Psychological Association (APA) in Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology / Revue canadienne de psychologie expérimentale
- Vol. 56 (2) , 128-137
- https://doi.org/10.1037/h0087391
Abstract
According to statistical models, the acquisition function of contingency judgement is due to confidence increasing with sample size. According to associative models, the function reflects the accumulation of associative strength on which the judgement is based. Which view is right? Thirty university students assessed the relation between a fictitious medication and a symptom of skin discoloration in conditions that varied sample size (4, 6, 8 or 40 trials) and contingency (delta P = .20, .40, .60 or .80). Confidence was also collected. Contingency judgement was lower for smaller samples, while confidence level correlated inversely with sample size. This dissociation between contingency judgement and confidence contradicts the statistical perspective.Keywords
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