Environmental effects of chlorofluorocarbons: Will restrictions be needed

Abstract

This report describes a method that has been devised for estimating ozone depletion for various assumptions regarding the future release of chlorocarbons (CLCs) to the atmosphere. The method is calibrated against published results obtained with more elaborate models of atmospheric chemistry. The method is applied for various scenarios for future CLC emissions, with and without emission controls. Estimates are made of the climatic effects of CLC emissions, as presented by the average surface temperature of the earth. It is concluded that current rates of emission present no immediate danger to the earth and its inhabitants and would not do so for many decades. However, growth in CLC emissions at 3%/year or more, as seems likely, would eventually lead to unacceptable changes both in total ozone density and in surface temperature. Although no corrective action appears necessary at present, given the long times needed to develop and introduce substitutes or to implement effective emission controls, such actions may be necessary within the next one to three decades.

Keywords

This publication has 0 references indexed in Scilit: