On Doing the “Impossible”: Inferring that a Putative Causal Relationship does not Exist

Abstract
A simple heuristic is proposed for drawing a warranted inference that a causal relationship does not exist between two events. It is illustrated by a study of the putative indirect causal relationship between Autistic Disorder and the Fragile X syndrome. This study was designed to ensure that a failure to find such a relationship provided good reasons for concluding that it was unlikely there was a relationship between Autistic Disorder and the Fragile X syndrome.

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