On the Political Consequences of Scarcity and Economic Decline

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Abstract
This essay criticizes the relative neglect of political analysis in most of the literature on global resource scarcity and ecological crisis. It proposes that substantial and persisting increases in the scarcity of widely-sought resources in contemporary societies tend to create greater material inequalities within and among societies, intensify internal and international conflict, and a shift from open toward more closed and authoritarian political institutions. National policy responses which facilitate accommodation to ecological limits are contrasted with pro-growth policies. Historical and contemporary evidence is cited in support of the argument. Implications for the Third World and North-South relations are suggested. The analysis is intended to promote empirical research that will qualify both the unrealistic political optimism of ecological analysts and the technological optimism of the proponents of further growth.

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