Optimal Harvest Rate Policies for Rebuilding the Adams River Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

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Abstract
This paper examines how a currently depressed population, the Adams River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), should be rebuilt over time in order to maximize the economic benefit. We use dynamic optimization techniques to answer two questions which previous static optimization work on the Adams River sockeye controversy did not address: (1) what changes from current management policies are required over time to maximize the net economic yield from the population and (2) just how much economic benefit can accrue from following such a policy? We find that following the optimal policy identified by this methodology could contribute more than $600 million to the net value of the Adams River stock. Examination of various confounding factors (co-migrating stocks, parameter uncertainty, and the discount rate applied) indicates that the optimal harvest policy is remarkably robust to these sources of uncertainty. The study also lays the basis for repeating such numerical analysis on other populations of interest.

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