MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON COMMERCIAL FARM INCOMES IN SOUTH AFRICA

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Abstract
This paper examines the impacts of interest rates, exchange rates and money supply on real net fm incomes in South Africa from 1947–1994. A vector autoregression framework is used for the analysis which places minimal restrictions on the model so the true structure of the relationship can be observed. Long run relationships were established using cointegration and time varying parameters estimated to analyze the macroeconomic impacts at various stages of financial sector reform. The results indicate that the interest rate had the most significant effect on real net farm income which was exacerbated during the reform process. Exchange rates have played a role as a cost of production through imported inputs with the marketing boards being fairly successful at insulating farmers from external demand.