Estimation of Engine Removal Times and Prediction of Replacement Requirements.

Abstract
The report contains a review of the actuarial method for estimation of engine lives, a suggestion to reduce the variance of the estimate by using variable age intervals, a description of alternative estimators that use all data on engine removal ages, a comparison of estimators, a sequential two sample test for obtaining representative data set of engine lives, a review of the actuarial method and a simulation program for predicting replacement requirements, a next event simulation program for predicting engine requirements, and suggestions for more comprehensive models of engine performance and replacement. The first appendix contains the derivation of the maximum likelihood estimator for engine lives from a multiple risk model with a progressively censored sample. The second appendix describes variance reduction by antithetic variates for a next event replacement simulation. The third appendix describes the next event type simulation of operation of a fleet of aircraft with a single type of engine.

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