Influences of Upwelling, Ocean Temperature, and Smolt Abundance on Marine Survival of Coho Salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Oregon Production Area

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Abstract
The relationships between the marine survival of hatchery and wild coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Oregon Production Area and ocean upwelling, ocean temperature, and smolt abundance were investigated. Hatchery coho appear to be more sensitive than wild coho to changes in upwelling-related factors although this difference may be due to errors in the estimates of wild smolts and adults that were used in the analysis. Two levels of upwelling (strong and weak), which are associated with a twofold difference in survival of hatchery coho smolts, were identified. Significant relationships were identified between survival of hatchery smolts and survival of wild smolts that migrated in strong upwelling years and sea-surface temperature during that year. Similar relationships were not as apparent for smolts migrating in weak upwelling years as they were for smolts migrating in strong upwelling years. Each major component of coho production (wild, public hatchery, and private hatchery), when treated separately, as well as public and private hatchery coho combined, exhibited linear smolt-to-adult relationships. Only hatchery plus wild coho that migrated in weak upwelling years and hatchery plus wild coho in all years combined exhibited nonlinear smolt-to-adult relationships. I concluded that these nonlinear relationships were caused by a shift in the stock composition of the Oregon Production Area coho population from predominantly high-survival, wild fish when smolt numbers were low to predominantly low-survival, hatchery fish when smolt numbers were high.