Hurricane Maximum Intensity: Past and Present

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Abstract
Hurricane intensity forecasting has lagged far behind the forecasting of hurricane track. In an effort to improve the understanding of the hurricane intensity dilemma, several attempts have been made to compute an upper bound on the intensity of tropical cyclones. This paper investigates the strides made into determining the maximum intensity of hurricanes. Concentrating on the most recent attempts to understand the maximum intensity problem, the theories of Holland and Emanuel are reviewed with the objective of assessing their validity in real tropical cyclones. Each theory is then tested using both observations and the axisymmetric hurricane numerical models of Ooyama and Emanuel. It is found that ambient convective instability plays a minor role in the determination of the maximum intensity and that the Emanuel model is the closest to providing a useful calculation of maximum intensity. Several shortcomings are revealed in Emanuel's theory, however, showing the need for more basic research on ... Abstract Hurricane intensity forecasting has lagged far behind the forecasting of hurricane track. In an effort to improve the understanding of the hurricane intensity dilemma, several attempts have been made to compute an upper bound on the intensity of tropical cyclones. This paper investigates the strides made into determining the maximum intensity of hurricanes. Concentrating on the most recent attempts to understand the maximum intensity problem, the theories of Holland and Emanuel are reviewed with the objective of assessing their validity in real tropical cyclones. Each theory is then tested using both observations and the axisymmetric hurricane numerical models of Ooyama and Emanuel. It is found that ambient convective instability plays a minor role in the determination of the maximum intensity and that the Emanuel model is the closest to providing a useful calculation of maximum intensity. Several shortcomings are revealed in Emanuel's theory, however, showing the need for more basic research on ...

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