Attributes of Excellence in Various Professions: Their Relevance to the Selection of Gifted/Talented Persons

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Abstract
Grades will predict grades and the academic-type tests will predict grades but they have been found through research studies to be poor predictors or no predictors at all of who will be the best in professions. The troublesome answer generally is that professional schools do not select the persons who will become the best professionals in their fields, nor who will best keep up-to-date with new knowledge and techniques in their careers. The main exception to this general finding occurs in the field of professional athletics and in the entertainment and artistic fields. The example given comes from the Dallas Cowboys scouting data and outcome of potential football recruits in their professional careers. Their correlations are about .70 with career success, whereas predictors from professional schools range from zeros to about +.20 or slightly higher—such predictors from professional schools still miss over 90% or even over 95% of the target, i.e., what is involved in succeeding in each of the professions. Consequently, neither those chosen into most professions nor their future clients will be well served by such poor predictive procedures.