Predictive Model for the Population Dynamics of Potato Leafhopper, Empoasca fabae (Homoptera: Cicadellidae), on Alfalfa

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Abstract
A predictive population dynamics model for potato leafhopper, Empoasca fabae (Harris), is presented. The model is based on a Leslie matrix design and uses a degreeday time scale. Linear regression is used to predict leafhopper immigration into the field, based on samples taken during the first 3 weeks following cutting. Laboratory and field data collected in 1980–81 were used to develop the model. Observed survivorships were much lower for the egg and first instars than for the other stages and also lower in the third than in the second crop growth cycle. The model predicted reasonably well the adult and nymphal population growth during the second and third crop growth cycles, based on field data collected in 1982. However, it slightly overestimated density of first and second instars. Simulation studies suggest that longer crop growth cycles may result in a higher proportion of adults present at harvest; simulated increases in initial immigrant density have little effect on proportion of adults at harvest. The model is very sensitive to changes in leafhopper survivorship.

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