Structural stability of low-order system dynamics models

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Abstract
This paper studies the value of the structural stability concept in relation to system dynamics models, illustrated by applications to low-order urban dynamics models. The way in which this concept permits a deeper study of the sensitivity of complex systems to changes in parameters and tables is shown. Forrester (1961), when establishing system dynamics, postulated the insensitivity of complex systems. The structural stability concept supplies a, theoretical framework for use in a deeper ' analysis of the sensitivity of a model. Structural stability is analysed by a study of the equilibrium surfaces in an appropriate space. These surfaces allow one to study the sensitivity of equilibrium points to parameter and table changes. Any change in the mode of behaviour of the model is shown by the existence of singularities in these surfaces, and this enables one to establish boundaries between regions of different models of behaviour and therefore a global perspective of the behaviour of the system is obtained. The paper presents an actual application to low-order urban dynamics models, giving comments about how to extend the use of the analysis to other related models.

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