Empirically based guidelines for moderate drinking: 1-year results from three studies with problem drinkers.

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Abstract
OBJECTIVES. The study was conducted to refine guidelines on moderate drinking for problem drinkers, persons whose alcohol use is hazardous or harmful. Information on levels of alcohol intake unlikely to cause problems is useful for health professionals, educators, and policymakers. METHODS. Based on their reports of alcohol-related problems, participants in three studies assessing interventions to reduce heavy drinking (114 men, 91 women) were categorized as "problem-free" or "problem" drinkers at follow-up. Drinking measures were examined to identify patterns separating these outcome categories. RESULTS. Analyses using 95% confidence intervals for means on drinking measures showed that guidelines should be sex-specific. Based on analyses of positive and negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity, it is recommended that men consume no more than 4 standard drinks in any day and 16 drinks in any week, and that women consume no more than 3 drinks in any day and 12 drinks in any week. CONCLUSIONS. These guidelines are consistent with those from several official bodies and should be useful for advising problem drinkers when moderation is a valid treatment goal. Their applicability to the general population is unevaluated.