Classroom Games: Understanding Bayes’ Rule
- 1 May 1996
- journal article
- Published by American Economic Association in Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Vol. 10 (2) , 179-187
- https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.2.179
Abstract
This paper uses the technique of experimental economics to set up a classroom situation where students learn to make Bayesian decisions. The exercises allow students to discover for themselves a natural counting heuristic that corresponds to Bayes's rule and is much quicker to use in many situations. In the context of balls and urns, this heuristic involves adjusting ball counts to reflect prior probabilities. It provides a natural bridge between simple intuition and the mathematical formula for Bayes's rule that is presented in undergraduate courses in economic statistics, game theory, and managerial economics.Keywords
This publication has 3 references indexed in Scilit:
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- Evaluating Uncertain Evidence With Sir Thomas Bayes: A Note For TeachersJournal of Economic Perspectives, 1987
- Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness HeuristicThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1980