Developing ‘Expert Systems’: Contributions from decision support systems and judgment analysis techniques

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Abstract
In considering the application of expert systems to the practice of R&D management, an age‐old conflict continues to plague those who would be innovators—proper consideration of the need to evaluate information both systematically and intuitively. Operations researchers/management scientists can, and often do, find that the results of their arduous efforts to develop sophisticated models, algorithms, and statistical validation techniques are less than satisfactory to decision‐makers. The reason, they are told, is that their systematic approach did not, and could not, give proper weight to the incommensurables.This paper discusses the concept that significant contributions could be made to lessen the occurrence of this dilemma by combining judgment analysis techniques with appropriately designed decision support systems. Current levels of performance/price ratios for computing systems are such that meaningful research can be undertaken to test the validity of this hypothesis. A research design is outlined and some recommendations presented toward that end.

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