A STOCHASTIC NUMERICAL-MODEL OF BREAST-CANCER GROWTH THAT STIMULATES CLINICAL-DATA

  • 1 January 1984
    • journal article
    • research article
    • Vol. 44  (9) , 4124-4130
Abstract
A new stochastic numerical model of breast cancer growth was developed. The model suggests that Gompertzian kinetics does apply but that from time to time, in random fashion, there occurs a spontaneous change in the growth rate or rate of decay of growth, such that the overall growth pattern occurs in a stepwise fashion. According to the model, the average time for the tumor burden to increase from 1 cell to detection is probably in the range of 8 yr. Secondly, the model suggests that there is a linear relationship between the number of axillary lymph nodes positive for metastasis at diagnosis and the number of other metastatic sites. This can be described mathematically by the equation S = 0.24 + 0.35N where S is the number of other metastatic sites and N is the number of positive lymph nodes. The model was verified by simulating 3 data sets: the survival times of untreated breast cancer patients as described by Bloom et al.; the growth rates of breast cancers immediately prior to diagnosis as described by Heuser and Spratt; and the disease-free survival time postmastectomy as described by Fisher et al. This model could have implications concerning the overall treatment rationale for breast cancer.

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