Bayesian Analysis of Electrocardiographic Exercise Stress Testing

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Abstract
We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of exercise-induced ST-segment depression in detecting coronary-artery disease by applying the likelihood-ratio formulation of Bayes's theorem to stresstest data, which were partitioned into half-millimeter ranges of depression. The graphic relation between the predictive value of a given test result and the pretest risk of disease in the test subjects was obtained for each of these half-millimeter intervals. This method reveals that the predictive value of testing depends on the degree of ST-segment depression, and that the pretest risk of coronary-artery disease is an important determinant of the predictive value of any test result in the individual patient.