An Evaluation of Statistical and Dynamical Techniques for Downscaling Local Climate

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Abstract
An assessment is made of downscaling estimates of screen temperature and precipitation observed at 976 European stations during 1983–94. A statistical downscaling technique, in which local values are inferred from observed atmospheric predictor variables, is compared against two dynamical downscaling techniques, based on the use of the screen temperature or precipitation simulated at the nearest grid point in integrations of two climate models. In one integration a global general circulation model (GCM) is constrained to reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation over the period of interest, while the second involves a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) nested inside the GCM. The dynamical and statistical methods are compared in terms of the correlation between the estimated and observed time series of monthly anomalies. For estimates of temperature a high degree of skill is found, especially over western, central, and northern Europe; for precipitation skill is lower (average corre... Abstract An assessment is made of downscaling estimates of screen temperature and precipitation observed at 976 European stations during 1983–94. A statistical downscaling technique, in which local values are inferred from observed atmospheric predictor variables, is compared against two dynamical downscaling techniques, based on the use of the screen temperature or precipitation simulated at the nearest grid point in integrations of two climate models. In one integration a global general circulation model (GCM) is constrained to reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation over the period of interest, while the second involves a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) nested inside the GCM. The dynamical and statistical methods are compared in terms of the correlation between the estimated and observed time series of monthly anomalies. For estimates of temperature a high degree of skill is found, especially over western, central, and northern Europe; for precipitation skill is lower (average corre...

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