Comparison of three Models of Avalanche Dynamics

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Abstract
Results and characteristics of three models for estimating avalanche flow speeds, flow heights, and run-out distances are compared: (1) Voellmy–Salm equation used with the traditional release, track, and run-out segmentation method; (2) Voellmy–Salm differential equation solved numerically along longitudinal profiles of avalanche paths, combined with modified assumptions for the flow in the run-out zone; (3) a granular-flow model introduced by Salm and Gubler. Within the limits of the accuracy of the field observations, all models are able to predict run-out distances correctly, at least for large avalanches, but the Voellmy–Salm type models significantly underestimate flow speeds. Modelling different flow regimes (sliding and partial fluidization) increases the range of avalanche sizes for which correct run-out modelling is possible without recalibration of model parameters.