A Model for Master Production Scheduling in Uncertain Environments

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Abstract
In uncertain environments, the master production schedule (MPS) is usually developed using a rolling schedule. When utilizing a rolling schedule, the MPS is replanned periodically and a portion of the MPS is frozen in each planning cycle. The cost performance of a rolling schedule depends on three decisions: the choice of the replanning interval (R), which determines how often the MPS should be replanned; the choice of the frozen interval (F), which determines how many periods the MPS should be frozen in each planning cycle; and the choice of the forecast window (T), which is the time interval over which the MPS is determined using newly updated forecast data.This paper uses an analytical approach to study the master production scheduling process in uncertain environments without capacity constraints, where the MPS is developed using a rolling schedule. It focuses on the choices of F, R, and T for the MPS. A conceptual framework that includes all important MPS time intervals is described. The effects of F, R, and T on system costs, which include the forecast error, MPS change, setup, and inventory holding costs, are also explored. Finally, a mathematical model for the MPS is presented. This model approximates the average system cost as a function of F, R, T, and several environmental factors. It can be used to estimate the associated system costs for any combination of F, R, and T.