Economic Models of Fertility in Post-war Britain – A Conceptual and Statistical Re-interpretation

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Abstract
The ‘New Home Economics’ theory is described briefly, and Leibenstein's conclusion in 1974 that empirical tests of the model have been unsuccessful is re-assessed and found to be confirmed for the case of some widely cited econometric studies in which macro-level time-series data are used. The pitfalls in formulating, fitting and interpreting such models are examined, and it is argued that the sorts of explanations which have been used to dismiss alternative explanations of post-war fertility trends are simplistic and invalid. Although the theory provides substantial insights, attempts which have been made to validate it have failed because many of the model's requirements have been ignored and, indeed, it is questioned whether the model is capable of empirical confirmation. It is concluded that progress will only be made by a fruitful dialogue between various social science disciplines, together with improved data sources and careful empirical studies.

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