A Critique of Three Methodologies for Estimating the Probability of Containment Failure Due to Steam Explosions

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Abstract
At least three distinct approaches have been employed for estimating the conditional probability of containment failure due to steam explosions within the pressure vessel of a water-cooled nuclear reactor. These approaches, which involve varying degrees of subjectivity and objectivity, are reviewed. It is concluded that, given the current state of knowledge, all approaches involve significant uncertainties; no method is currently capable of credibly defending any given value of failure probability or a narrow uncertainty range.