Recent Advances in Tropical Climate Prediction

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Abstract
A review is given of the current status of long-range forecasting in the low latitudes. Promising leads have developed over the past five years in the seasonal forecasting for certain target regions of the Tropics. Various approaches are of interest: (a) empirical methods based on the combination of general circulation diagnostics and statistical techniques; (b) numerical modeling, itself requiring also a diagnostic understanding from empirical analyses; and (c) purely statistical techniques. Regional targets include Indian monsoon, Nile and Ethiopia, eastern Africa, southern Africa, Sahel, Nordeste, North Atlantic storms, northwest Pacific storms, Australia, and El Niño and Southern Oscillation. Forecasts in real time are now being issued for most of these targets, and mostly from methods combining general circulation diagnostics with statistics. El Niño and Southern Oscillation are the target of real-time forecasting from purely statistical techniques, as well as the subject of numerical modeling by four different groups. Numerical modeling is also being applied in real-time climate prediction to Sahel and Nordeste. From this experience it seems most fruitful to pursue concurrently all three lines of approach. Remarkable spontaneous initiatives in diagnostic monitoring and prediction have been undertaken in various parts of the world, including documentation of methods and verification of performance. Publication of real-time forecasts in a recently established forecast forum stimulates the professional interaction. The cultivation of the essential databases in real time, including further improvement of quality control and timely availability, may be the most important communal task at this stage.

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