Can commercial fishing cause evolution? Answers from guppies (Poecilia reticulata)

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Abstract
Life history theory predicts that high adult mortality rates select for earlier maturity and increased reproduction. If such evolution occurs in response to the commercial exploitation of natural fish populations, then the correlated reduction in body size would reduce the yield of the fishery. Earlier maturity and reduced body size are seen in commercially exploited populations. Here, we compare the life histories of natural populations of guppies (Poecilia reticulata) from Trinidad that live in either high- or low-predation environments, which serve as surrogates for the presence or absence of commercial fishing. We can quantify mortality rate and life history variables, including age and size at maturity, in the laboratory and in nature. We have manipulated mortality rates in nature and measured the rate of evolution. High mortality selects for earlier maturity at a smaller size, as observed in commercial fisheries and as predicted by theory. Furthermore, the nature and magnitude of predator-induced mortality are comparable to those caused by commercial fishing. The rate of evolution in guppies predicts similar evolution in commercial fisheries on a time scale of decades. These attributes support arguments that humans, like predators, have acted as an agent of selection when exploiting populations of fish.