Seismic motion and response prediction alternatives

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Abstract
Statistical methods are available which predict the maximum response of simple oscillators given the peak acceleration (Ap), peak velocity (Vp) or peak displacement (Dp) of seismic ground motions. An alternative parameter, namely an ordinate (or ordinates) of the Fourier amplitude spectrum of ground motion acceleration, FS(f), may in fact be a preferred predictor of peak response, especially in a frequency range close to f. Other statistical methods (attenuation laws) use distance R and other parameters such as magnitude (M), Modified Mercalli epicentral Intensity (Io) and Modified Mercalli site Intensity (MMI or Is) to predict spectral velocity (Sv(f)), etc. In using such approaches, it is most desirable to know the total uncertainty in the predicted peak response of the system given the starting parameter values. An extensive strong motion data set is used to study these questions, The most direct prediction models are found to be preferable (have lower prediction dispersion) but data may not be available in all regions to permit their use.