Duchen: An interactive computer program for calculating heterozygosity (carrier) risks in X‐linked recessive lethal diseases, and its application in duchenne muscular dystrophy

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Abstract
The program DUCHEN calculates the probability that a woman is a carrier of an X‐linked, lethal recessive disease on the basis of information in the woman's family and any available biochemical data. It is easily used by persons without computer knowledge or experience. The present version can accommodate families consisting of up to 100 people in seven generations. Risks may be estimated on the basis of pedigree information only, or with the inclusion of one or more types of biochemical test results. Biochemical data are incorporated with pedigree information into final risks using the powerful statistical technique of logistic discrimination, a procedure particularly suited for the separation of non‐normal populations on the basis of overlapping quantitative characteristics. Mutation rates are specified separately for males and females. DUCHEN is available in FORTRAN 77, IBM BASIC, and Applesoft BASIC, and may be used on a variety of mainframe or microcomputers. The model was used to calculate risks for 375 girls and women in 46 families with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD); serum creatine kinase tests had been carried out on 167 of these subjects who were of reproductive age. Carrier probabilities equal to or lower than the population risk (0.0004) were obtained for 21% of the aunts and 43% of the cousins of affected boys from families with an isolated case of DMD and for 14% of the cousins of affected boys from families with a known DMD history. DUCHEN should assist counsellors in determining which members of large families should be further examined using either standard biochemical carrier detection methods or DNA marker studies. Moreover, if the results of the latter are not decisive, then carrier probabilities provided by DUCHEN may be combined with information from DNA marker studies to yield more precise final risks.