The Gibbs and split–merge sampler for population mixture analysis from genetic data with incomplete baselines

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Abstract
Although population mixtures often include contributions from novel populations as well as from baseline populations previously sampled, unlabeled mixture individuals can be separated to their sources from genetic data. A Gibbs and split–merge Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler is described for successively partitioning a genetic mixture sample into plausible subsets of individuals from each of the baseline and extra-baseline populations present. The subsets are selected to satisfy the Hardy–Weinberg and linkage equilibrium conditions expected for large, panmictic populations. The number of populations present can be inferred from the distribution for counts of subsets per partition drawn by the sampler. To further summarize the sampler's output, co-assignment probabilities of mixture individuals to the same subsets are computed from the partitions and are used to construct a binary tree of their relatedness. The tree graphically displays the clusters of mixture individuals together with a quantitative measure of the evidence supporting their various separate and common sources. The methodology is applied to several simulated and real data sets to illustrate its use and demonstrate the sampler's superior performance.
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