Time and magnitude predictions in shocks due to chaotic fault interactions

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Abstract
The equations of motion for a two block, driven, spring loaded fault model with assymetric frictional forces are iterated in the chaotic regime [4,5]. The seismic moment, M0, of each failure episode whose moment exceeds a threshold, M0t, is recorded together with the time, T, since the last significant event (M0>M0t). Preliminary results from prediction‐regression analysis indicate that the distribution of points in M0‐T space takes the form of a map, Mo(t), T(t) determining the values of M0(t+l), T(t+l). It is suggested that such analysis on real data would be helpful in assessing the applicability of such low‐dimensional systems to earthquake modelling and may prove useful in the prediction of real events.