Estimating Above and Below Normal Rainfall Periods over South Africa, 1972–2000
Open Access
- 1 February 1977
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Journal of Applied Meteorology
- Vol. 16 (2) , 145-147
- https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1977)016<0145:eaabnr>2.0.co;2
Abstract
By fitting a trigonometrical regression model to a regionally averaged time series for the period 1910–72, and by extrapolation to the year 2000, an estimate of future extended wet and dry spells has been made for the summer rainfall region of South Africa. It is suggested that the periods 1972–81 and 1991–2000 will experience above normal rainfall and the period 1981–90 will be drier than normal. Results to date show that mean regional rainfall for the hydrological years 1972–73 to 1975–76 has conformed to the suggested pattern.Keywords
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