Cognitive models of international decisionmakers and international stability

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Abstract
The evolution to war or peace is discussed in terms of systems evolution and is then described in terms of four stages. Emphasis in this paper is on the stage of precursory or field‐reconfiguration phenomena. A major incongruence is suggested to exist between the realities of system structure, dynamics, and behavior on the one hand and the thought processes of world leaders about these systems on the other. A number of systems constructs are examined in terms of simplistic thinking, policy actions based on simplistic thinking, implications of the policy implementations for international stability, and systems thinking. Briefly, these constructs are linearity, direction of causality, determinacy, equilibrium, complexity, and structural change. The origin and nature of different cognitive styles is then discussed as they impact global systems management. Cognitive dissonance leading to cognitive structural change is stressed as a means of systems education. A program for implementing changes in thinking is sketched.

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