A Spatial Model of Crisis Bargaining

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Abstract
This study deals with the problem of determining whether states engaged in an international crisis will arrive at a negotiated settlement or go to war. A formal model of crisis bargaining that is based on a spatial representation of the theory of games is proposed as an analytical tool. The paper shows how the model can be used to derive probabilistic predictions regarding crisis outcomes and that these predictions are identical to the Nash bargaining solution when restrictive assumptions similar to Nash's are imposed on the model. A case study of the Fashoda crisis of 1898 is used to demonstrate the utility of the model as a conceptual framework.

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