First‐Order Analysis of Open‐Channel Flow

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Abstract
The effects of uncertainty in Manning's roughness coefficient and the empirical nature of Manning's equation on return period of flood stages have been analyzed using first-order reliability methods (FORM). This method generally used for structural reliability was applied to hydraulics by using Manning's equation as the basis for a limit state function. This paper also describes a way to compare the FORM results, a safety index, to the results of the traditional frequency method, a probability, by changing both to a return period.

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