Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the Warm Season: A USWRP Research and Development Strategy

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Abstract
Warm-season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are the poorest performance area of forecast systems worldwide. They stubbornly fall further behind while other aspects of weather prediction steadily improve. Unless a major effort is mounted to overcome the impediments to improved prediction, it is certain to remain the Achilles' heel of weather prediction, at a progressively greater cost to society. For these reasons and others, the Office of the Lead Scientist, U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP), commissioned a workshop to examine future courses of action to improve understanding and prediction of heavy warm-season rainfall and associated flood forecasts. The workshop was held in Boulder, Colorado, in March 2002. It was attended by 75 people and produced numerous “white papers” and panel reports, all of which are readily available to the reader. Herein the major findings of the workshop are summarized, including an overarching strategy to achieve improved predictive skill and recommen... Abstract Warm-season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are the poorest performance area of forecast systems worldwide. They stubbornly fall further behind while other aspects of weather prediction steadily improve. Unless a major effort is mounted to overcome the impediments to improved prediction, it is certain to remain the Achilles' heel of weather prediction, at a progressively greater cost to society. For these reasons and others, the Office of the Lead Scientist, U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP), commissioned a workshop to examine future courses of action to improve understanding and prediction of heavy warm-season rainfall and associated flood forecasts. The workshop was held in Boulder, Colorado, in March 2002. It was attended by 75 people and produced numerous “white papers” and panel reports, all of which are readily available to the reader. Herein the major findings of the workshop are summarized, including an overarching strategy to achieve improved predictive skill and recommen...

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