Predicting safe riding behaviour and accidents: Demography, beliefs, and behaviour in motorcycling safety

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Abstract
A prospective national survey of British motorcyclists was designed, to examine the relationships between beliefs about safe riding, behaviour on the roads, and accidents and spills. At Time 1, 4100 riders were sent a postal questionnaire to tap their beliefs about safe riding and their self-reported behaviour on the roads in the previous year. Half the sample received a questionnaire based on the Theory of Reasoned Action (Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975) and half received a questionnaire based on the Health Belief Model (Rosenstock, 1966; Janz and Becker, 1984). Twelve months later, at Time 2, respondents were asked to complete a second questionnaire, in which they reported their behaviour and accident history in the intervening period. The most important behavioural predictor of spills and accidents was found to be a factor which measured violations - breaking the law and rules about safe riding. Law and rule breaking was strongly predicted by demographic factors, particularly age, sex, and experience, and by beliefs. We conclude that beliefs about safe riding do predict riding behaviour, which in turn predicts accident involvement, and that beliefs are best seen as mediators between demographic inputs, such as age and experience, and behavioural outcomes.