Predictors of Relapse Following Response From a First Episode of Schizophrenia or Schizoaffective Disorder

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Abstract
PATIENTS WITH first-episode schizophrenia usually respond well to treatment,1-5 but relapse is frequent during the first years of the illness and may be associated with clinical deterioration.6 Previous studies have used different definitions of relapse, employed a variety of treatments and have reported a range of relapse rates. Despite this variability, some general trends are evident. In the first year, relapse rates in published studies7-9 are relatively low. The largest rate was 41% in patients taking placebo (n=17)8; only 17% of patients relapsed during 15 months in the study9 with the largest sample size (n=69). After the first year, relapse rates8,10-15 rise substantially, with published rates of between 35% after 18 months15 and 74% after 5 years of follow-up.12