Pilot Point Methodology for Automated Calibration of an Ensemble of Conditionally Simulated Transmissivity Fields: 2. Application

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Abstract
This paper, the second in a two‐part series, presents the application of a methodology to assess spatial variability of the transmissivities within a regional aquifer in the vicinity of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the Culebra dolomite. An innovative aspect of this methodology is the generation of an ensemble of conditional simulations of the transmissivity field which preserve the statistical moments and spatial correlation structure of the measured transmissivity field and honors the measured transmissivity values at their locations. Each simulation is then calibrated, using an iterative procedure, to match an exhaustive set of steady state and transient pressure data. A fully automated inverse algorithm using pilot points as parameters of calibration was employed. The application of this new methodology to the Culebra dolomite flow system produced 70 conditional simulations which were consistent with all the measured transmissivity and head data at the site. Based on an analysis of the calibrated transmissivity fields, the spatial variability of the transmissivity fields was increased as a result of the calibration process. This increase is in part due to the addition of a high‐transmissivity feature to each of the transmissivity fields which is needed to match both steady state and transient state head data.